Allen Vs. Collins:

The Race Closes or Does It?

2008-06-21T17:41:00.001-07:00

In regards to the Senate race in Maine, manyobservers online are abuzz about a new Rasmussen poll out showing Susan Collins ahead of Tom Allen by a mere 7 points, 49-42. Ordinarily a poll showing a challenger trailing by 7 points would not be cause for celebration among that candidate’s supporters and a cause for panic among his opponent’s, but in Maine, a state where Tom Allen has seemingly failed to show much sign of catching on, it is a big deal. Commentators on DailyKos were quick to declare Collins dead in the water, while commentators at As Maine Goes attempted to discredit the poll, by criticizing its automated nature.

There is a problem with the poll, but it does not lie in how it was taken – instead it lies in what else it says.. The same poll showing Collins up 7 has Obama leading McCain by 22 points, 55-33. While it may well be possible that Obama is leading McCain by that much in Maine, and given the demographic makeup of the state I am skeptical, I think that few would suggest that Obama will actually win Maine by 22 points. Without a doubt Collins will likely win by only high single digits if Obama does carry the state 60-38, but I doubt even the strongest Collin’s supporter would have contested that claim.

So what does this poll really show? It shows Tom Allen running 12 points behind Obama, while Collins runs 19 points in front of McCain for one thing, and I sincerely doubt that much as no Collins supporter would contest that Tom Allen would be in single digits if Obama swept Maine by over twenty-points, most Allen supporters will have to concede that if Collins is running a net 31 points better than McCain’s margin, she wins.

Furthermore, the numbers in the rest of the poll do not give Allen much comfort. 65% still view Collins favorably, 9% higher than his own favorables, while Allen’s unfavorables, at 37% are 4% higher than Collins’. Furthermore, most of the undecideds are Republicans and independents, while Collins, with 81% of Republicans supporting her, probably has an easier time winning over undecideds than does Allen who already has the support of 89% of Democrats.

In effect the poll effectively confirms what everyone already knew. One that Tom Allen as a candidate seems to have failed to catch on, and two that despite the previous statement, Maine, as a state likely to go democratic in the Presidential election, is one that is unlikely to be a blowout. In effect, Tom Allen is depending on Barack Obama to carry him over the finish line, which given his weakness in the working-class second district, seems like a situation he would rather not be in.

2008-06-06T20:41:00.001-07:00

Maine Senate; County By County

After a six month hiatus caused by the great bane of student existence, thesis, I decided to relaunch my project to follow the 2008 Maine Senate Race. Much has happened to change the race since I was last on. Last fall Collins led by 18-20 points consistently; today Collins leads by only 15 points.

Actually to be honest the failure of Allen to get traction is extremely worrying for him, especially given the history of strong congressional challengers simply failing to catch on. He certainly has to be worried about the fates that befell David Emory and Tom Andrews, strong candidates who simply chose to run against incumbents Mainers saw no reason to fire. Both were popular congressman who represented half the state, both had plenty of money, and both lost by over 20 points. While Allen will may well pull within ten points, his race is starting to look mighty steep.

With that said I think it makes sense to look at Androscoggin couny, perhaps the great battleground of this race. Working-class and dominated by the historically democratic cities of Lewiston and Auburn, it is the place Allen needs to win badly. It is also a place where likely democratic nominee Barack Obama is unlikely to benefit his recent endorser. Dominated by catholic Franco-Americans, it is exactly the type of community where Hillary did well, and while Obama put in a decent performance powered by Bates College students in the caucuses, the democractic Mayor of Lewiston has endorsed Susan Collins over Allen, and much of the local democratic machine seems to be holding back from supporting him. This is a problem because even Chellie Pingree out performed her statewide numbers here, and if he is not winning Androscoggin, he is unlikely to be close to winning the state.

2006 Governor

Maine

Baldacci(D) 38.22%

Woodcock(R) 30.21%

Merrill(I) 21.55%

Lamarche (G) 9.56%

2006 Governor

Baldacci(D) 13,631 33.31%

Woodcock(R)13,362 32.66%

Merrill(I) 9,805 23.96%

Lamarche (G) 3,914 9.57%

2004 Presidential

Maine

Kerry(D) 53.57%

Bush(R) 44.58%

Androscoggin

Kerry(D) 30,503 54.40%

Bush(R) 24,519 43.73%

2002 Senate

Maine

Collins(R) 58.44%

Pingree(D) 41.66%

Androscoggin

Collins(R) 20,095 55.20%

Pingree(D) 16,312 44.80%

2000 Presidential

Maine

Gore (D) 49.09%

Bush(R) 43.97%

Nader(G) 5.70%

Androscoggin

Gore (D) 26,251 53.31%

Bush (R) 19,948 40.51%

Nader(G) 2,388 4.70%

As can be seen Androscoggin is generally more Democratic than Maine at large, which makes sense considering that Lewiston-Auburn is a historical stronghold of the Maine Democratic party, voting Democratic consistently even in the pre-Muskie era when Maine was one of the most Republican states in the country. While its margin is partially negated by the small towns that are more Republican, performance there primary determines performance county wide. It is a very specific type of Democratic however, given the Franco-American background of Lewiston-Auburn’s population, and how more democratic than the state depends on the candidate. Gore ran about 4% better than his statewide numbers in Androscoggin, while Pingree ran about 3% better. Kerry on the other hand, performed less than 1% better here, while Baldacci actually performed worse.

Much of Pingree’s margin came from Lewiston, which she won by just over 200 votes over Collins. This should be Tom Allen’s worst case performance. Pingree recall lost the county by ten and the election by sixteen. Allen probably will have trouble coming close to Kerry’s 25 point and 4,500 vote margin, but a 12-15 point win and 2000-2500 vote margin is likely the absolute minimum he needs to win.

Obama is likely to be a mixed blessing here. He will probably increase student turnout over the 2006 numbers in Lewiston, where Bates students will come out to vote for him and presumably Allen, but the rest of Lewiston-Auburn and Androscoggin county for that matter are made up of the exact kind of voters Obama has not been winning in the primaries. Allen’s problem is that these are also the voters he never consolidated within his own congressional district. Local issues, including the fact that Allen blocked the construction of a post office in Lewiston will not help. Nor will the fact that the Mayor of Lewiston endorsed and is campaigning for Collins. That said, this is probably more hospitable for Allen than the rest of the second district and he likely needs to win it to win his race.

2008-03-10T20:26:00.000-07:00

Comparing Apple's and Oranges

Jonathan Kaplan's story in this weekend's Maine Sunday Telegram was a remainder that if news is not available, journalists often feel it is their job to create it. Titled
'Allen, Collins offer study in big contrasts', the article proffered a
comparison of the legislative records of Senator Susan Collins and her
challenger, Congressman Tom Allen. What makes this article so strange is
that it avoids any quantitative assessment of their records at all, and
instead seems to make the case that legislators should not be judged by
their legislative accomplishments. This premise seems a shallow attempt to
mask what will most likely be the key issue in this campaign: that
Congressman Allen, during his tenure in Washington that started on the exact
same day as his opponent, has never passed a single piece of legislation
into law.

The article was featured on the front page of Sunday's paper, and included a
callout graphic with the candidate's pictures and a short list of
legislative highlights, side by side. While the Collins column highlighted
three (of many) actual legislative accomplishments, Allen's list stretched
the definition of 'Legislative Highlights':

- Inserted provision into bill that would have banned permanent U.S. bases
in Iraq
- Kicked off national debate on high price of prescription drugs in 1998
- Authored bill banning mercury exports that passed the House, pending in
Senate

Let's break these down:
The first of Allen's top three achievements in his 12 years in Washington
is that he inserted a provision into a bill. And the provision was ignored.
Later in the article, Kaplan erroneously refers to Allen's effort as a
'bill', which it was, in fact, not.

The second point is even more dubious: "Kicked off national debate" on
prescription drug prices. Again, not a law. And how exactly did Congressman
Allen 'kick off' this debate? Kaplan is suggesting that Allen was the first
public figure to voice displeasure about prescription drug prices, a
suggestion that is laughable even if we discount its irrelevance. Anyone who has had the misfortune to look at the prices of prescription drugs shares Allen's outrage. It is actually doing something about it that would be an accomplishment.

And last, Allen's pending Mercury bill. In 12 years, all Allen has been able
to do is get a bill through one house of Congress. This is not a
'legislative accomplishment'. A 'nascent accomplishment', perhaps, but
hardly the stuff to put on your resume after more than a decade on the job.

When comparing the legislative records of two candidates, it would make
sense to at least include a simple quantitative assessment: how many bills
has each candidate passed into law? There is not a single reference to the
number of bills Collins has passed into law in the entire article (15 as of
March 2008, not including ammendments). We have to go 13 paragraphs deep
into this front-page article before we get to the fact that Allen has NEVER
passed a bill into law. This point is obviously the deserved focus of any
article on the Collins vs Allen legislative record, its absence in this
article generates serious questions about the author's reason for writing
the piece.

When Kaplan finally reveals that Allen has never passed a bill into law, he
couches it in an excruciatingly misleading sentence:

"Until the Democrats
took control of Congress in 2007, none of those bills was signed into law."

The reader would naturally assume that Allen has passed some legislation
since the 2007 Democratic takeover. The reader, in that case, would be
wrong: Allen has still not passed a single bill into law.

The 'provision' referred to in the front-page graphic is revealed actually
as the work of Rep. Barbara Lee of California, but not until the sixth
paragraph, on the back page of the paper. It turns out Allen's #1
legislative accomplishment was having a two year old concept picked up by
another member of congress and inserted into a bill. So the front-page
graphic that says Allen 'inserted' the provision was contradicted by later
parts of the article itself- Lee, not Allen, inserted the provision. And, of
course, the provision was ultimately dismissed.

Kaplan then goes on to suggest excuses for Allen's dire lack of legislative
accomplishment. He states as fact that 'In the house, the majority party
rules with a heavy hand. The minority party rarely wins any legislative
victories and is afforded only limited chances to shape legislation."
Kaplan's statement seems to suggest an institutional lack of cooperation in
the House,regardless of which party is in charge. A simple test of this
logic would be to compare Allen's lack of accomplishment with his fellow
Democratic congressmen.

Turns out the iron-fisted majority rule in the House has not prevented Rep.
Charles Rangel from passing 13 bills into law since 1997. The late
Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos also passed 13 bills since 1997, Elijah
Cummings passed 11, Ralph Regula and George Miller each passed 9, the list
goes on and on, and these don't even include amendments that have been
adopted. While there is no doubt that minority status is a hindrance to
passing legislation, the idea that a legislator would be unable to get a
single bill passed in 12 years in Congress is worth examination in an
article about legislative records.

Kaplan proceeds to break apart the themes of the two candidates'
legislative work: Allen works on 'Big Issues', while Collins is 'Taking Aim
at Bureaucracy'. Again, the false implication here is that Collins is absent
from the 'Big Issue' debate. Despite the headline, the only backup to this
claim is a quote from Allen himself, stating that he has 'taken on big
issues.' Kaplan reverts again to Allen's role in the prescription drug
debate, admitting Allen's efforts failed, but closing with this: " The bill
never made it through the House, but it led states, including Maine, to pass
similar bills." Kaplan fails to describe how exactly Allen's bill 'led'
states to pass similar bills, the same way he failed to explain how Allen
'kicked off' the debate over prescription drug prices. Kaplan is making an
inference here that could only be based on Allen's talking points, as he
presents no empirical data about Allen's involvement in subsequent efforts.

Kaplan closes this article with a paragraph that is as revealing of his
motivations as any in the article. The piece that was ostensibly a study in
legislative accomplishments ends with a quote from Amy Fried of the
University of Maine. Kaplan describes her as a 'political scientist a the
University of Maine at Orono." Fried is in fact a rabid partisan, a
self-described progressive. Her partisan bona fides would have been easily
accessible to Kaplan, here is a sampling of the headlines of some of her
op-eds:

The Real Feel-Good Party-Republicans would rather live in a fantasy world of
saving face, than deal with the real issues.
Republican Rage- Republican free-floating rage is reinforced by
self-defeating neo-con policies.
Corporate Media Enables Right Wing Distortion of "Religious Liberty"-The
corporate media is making it easier for the Republican Religious Right base
to pass extreme views off as mainstream. The media stars display their own
ignorance in the process.
Republican Candidates' Pro-Torture Glee-Arguments against most Republican
presidential candidates' adolescent view of torture.

Offered as a non-biased summary, Fried's statements have almost nothing to
do with the rest of the article:

"Congressman Allen will want to frame Senator Collins' record in terms of
her relationship with President Bush and the Republican Party, which is
unpopular in Maine," said Amy Fried, a political scientist at the University
of Maine in Orono. "Senator Collins wants to set up herself up in opposition
in certain Bush policies."

So Kaplan's judgment of a fitting summary to this piece is that Collins is
trying to set herself up in opposition to Bush? Despite Allen and Collins
spending 12 years in Congress, Kaplan dismisses the entire concept of
legislative accomplishment, and chalks it all up to his myopic perception
that Bush trumps everything.

County-by-County: York

2007-12-16T01:27:00.000-08:00

Having covered the home bases for both candidates, I decided to finally resume my county-by county survey of Maine by looking at York County, which is Maine’s second richest. The southernmost county in the state, it resembles seacoast New Hampshire in many ways more than it does Maine, though its high income and social liberalism have tended to cancel each other out, and in the 2004 Presidential Election, its results almost perfectly mirrored those of the state at large. As part of Allen’s district he has an inside shot at winning it by at least Kerry’s margin which should put him in a good position in the race, though Susan Collins also showed substantial strength here in 2002. This county will likely be the test of how strongly influenced the race will be by the War in Iraq and the Presidential race. While a standard Republican performance shouldn’t drag down Collins too much, the prospect of Huckabee nomination that could turn a 54-46 race into a 61-39 one may worry the Collins camp. If Allen can win here even with 53 or 54% he is in good shape.

Statistics

Governor 2006

John Baldacci 32,324 42.04%

Chandler Woodcock 21,890 28.47%

Barbara Merrill 15,591 20.28%

Pat LaMarche 6,729 8.75%

D+3

Presidential 2004

John Kerry 58,702 53.55%

George Bush 49,526 45.01%

D+0

House 2004

Tom Allen 60,157 58.17%

Charlie Summers 43,253 41.83%

R+2

Senate 2002

Susan Collins 43,556 60.56%

Chellie Pingree 28,352 39.44%

R+2

Presidential 2000

Al Gore 46,618 49.31%

George Bush 42,304 44.74%

Ralph Nader 4,631 4.90%

As can be seen this county almost exactly mirrored the statewide results, with George Bush in 2000 and Susan Collins in 2002 performing slightly above the statewide Republican performance, and George Bush in 2004 and Chandler Woodcock in 2006 performing below it. A such it is an obvious battleground in 2008, which like much of Maine, pits Susan Collins popularity as a Senator against Allen’s record as a congressmen. This is not a good indication for Allen who has performed the worst in the county vis-à-vis his overall performance as congressman, never once matching Susan Collins 2002 showing a against a much stronger opponent than he has ever faced. Another occurrence of sixtypercentism, Tom Allen’s persistent inability to get over 61% in his own district no matter the year or quality of his opponent, indicating his inability to establish himself with his constituents. Any semi-competent Democratic incumbent could get 60% here against under funded foes, but that loyalty is a mile wide and an inch deep. This, combined with his poor showings so far in statewide polls leads me to think that he is probably lucky to be over 40% in an area that he needs to win.

December Update

2007-12-04T00:52:00.000-08:00

Having not updated for a while this is a relatively slipshot update. No new polls have been released since I last updated. The race has continued to move down people’s rankings, with it dropping below seven on the Hotline’s ranking of races most likely to turn over, and news that Trent Lott has resigned , and the likelihood of a special election increases the likelihood that intention will continue to shift away from Maine. In fact there have been only two google news entries on the race in the last two weeks.

This is not to say things have not been active. They have been, or at least the staffs on both sides have been organizing and planning. Allen’s staff has been so busy, Allen even declined to meet with a delegation of Democrats from Lewiston last week in order to discuss how to attack Collins with his taxpayer-funded chief of staff. I have this incident on good authority, which would add another dose of irony to a race in which Allen has repeatedly accused Collins of things only to have it revealed that his campaign itself is actually guilty of those very practices.

If that is bad enough, being identified like this in the Kennebec Herald aren’t great for the congressman:

Collins is facing a challenge from U.S. Rep. Tom Allen, a Democrat, who is trailing by 20 points according to early polls.

Now that sort of article will have an impact on fundraising.

Collins-Allen Race Moving Down the Rankings

2007-11-19T22:41:00.000-08:00

Well, back after a bit of a gap, which is what seems to have happened to news about the race. Nevertheless, views have begun to move in the national media in regards to the race after a spate of polls showing Collins leading by twenty points or more. Chris Cillizza, the Washington Post political reporter, who recently ranked the race in 4th place on his list of seats likely to change parties has demoted all the way to 8th, and has begun to see signs of a repeat of the 2002 Collins-Pingree race.

8. Maine: This race continues to confound us. Is it a replay of the 2006 Rhode Island Senate race, where Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R), a moderate by any standard, is dragged to defeat simply because of the "R" by his name on the ballot? Or is it a mirror image of Sen. Susan Collins's (R) 2002 race, in which a much-hyped Democratic challenger failed to convince Maine voters that the incumbent is really more conservative than she says? We honestly don't know. Rep. Tom Allen is the best candidate Democrats could have fielded against Collins but has considerable ground to make up over the next year. Poll after poll shows Collins not just ahead by 20+ points but enjoying well over 50 percent support. There's no question her numbers will come down as the race engages and Allen seeks to tie President Bush's unpopularity and the war in Iraq around her campaign. But Collins is in as strong a shape as any northeastern incumbent could ask for one year out from Election Day.

I tend to agree with this judgment and to have held it from this summer. Yes the environment is bad, and yes the war is unpopular, but if the democrats are relying on those to give them the race, it is an acknowledgment that even with Tom Allen's "strength's" there wouldn't be a race at all. Environment can help someone who would otherwise lose 51-47 win, but can it help someone who would lose 55-42?

Two New Polls and Favorable/Unfavorable Numbers for Allen

2007-11-06T00:20:00.000-08:00

Given the sparsity with which this race has been polled its amazing how many polls have come out lately. Two new ones were released this weekend, both more or less confirming Dailykos' Research 2000 one. The first is from Critical Insights who also polled the race in the spring, then showing a 57-32 Collins lead. The fall 2007 shows the race as

Maine
52% Susan Collins
33% Tom Allen

First Congressional District
49% Susan Collins
36% Tom Allen

Second Congressional District
56% Susan Collins
30% Tom Allen

Favorable

The most suprising thing about the numbers is not the margin; that has been fairly constant. The thing of interest is Tom Allen's numbers. His inability to get much above 36% in his own congressional district is not a good sign since he has nearly 100% name id there. He was elected on the same day in 1996 as Susan Collins, and it it must be disturbing to be trailing her by 13 points in his own district. It also indicates a degree of weakness on the part of Allen personally, indicating that he does have negatives. Again we lacked a question on views of Tom Allen. Luckily SurveyUSA did ask that question, and as a result we discover the amazing fact that Allen shockingly already has higher negatives statewide than Collins.

Maine
55% Susan Collins
38% Tom Allen

Fav/Unfav/Neutral/Unfamiliar
Susan Collins 48/25/25/2
Tom Allen 34/29/26/11

Southern Maine
54% Collins
41% Allen

Fav/Unfav/Neutral/Unfamiliar
Susan Collins 52/25/22/1
Tom Allen 42/30/22/5

Northern Maine
56% Collins
35% Allen

Fav/Unfav/Neutral/Unfamiliar
Susan Collins 43/25/28/4
Tom Allen 25/27/30/18

The most stunning thing in these numbers is again Allen's weakness in Southern Maine where there is only a negligible difference in name id between the candidates. As i mentioned when i looked at Cumberland county earlier, Allen needs to come out of here with 54% or 55% of the vote to have a shot. He is polling at 41%. And those numbers assume Collins is held below 55% in the second district, something that is also not happening. Is the race impossible for Allen? More problematic are his negatives, which are the only real part of his numbers that are seeing movement and now are almost even with his positives. This is a serious issue because in many cases this far out, those numbers are better indicator of performance than horse race ones. And they are indicating that Mainer's are not liking what they see of Allen politically.

Whose out-of-state Interrests will hurt more?

2007-11-01T22:19:00.000-07:00

Several months ago, Democrats made a big deal over a picture of Susan Collins standing behind President Bush as he signed her Homeland Security bill into law. Beyond wildly mis-portraying what happened at the event, it opens Allen up to questions about his fund raiser with one of the two people below.

Of course no one would claim that Congressman Allen is a crony of Kim Jong Il's on the basis of one picture, now would they?

Daily Kos Poll Shows Collins up Big

2007-10-23T22:15:00.000-07:00

One of the annoying things about following this race has been the lack of polling. There was a PPC poll this spring which showed Collins up 57-32, but no one else has polled the race since. Until the other day that was. Dailykos, the prominent Democratic site, was kind enough to pay Research 2000 to poll the race for them, and the results have confirmed earlier polls. The top-line numbers show Collins leading Allen 56-33, with 55% saying she deserves reelection, and her favorable and unfavorable ratings are 58/33.

On first brush this looks uncompetitive, but Democrats argue Allen should be able to close the gap, and posters on dailykos have pointed to both the examples of George Allen and Al D'Amato who managed to blow similar leads. Both however made gaffes that cost them races that otherwise might have turned out very differently.

The other thing brought up is the favorable ratings which poster have pointed out are below surveyusa's numbers last year which showed her around 73. One thing not mentioned however is the extent that surveyusa pushes undecideds, which tend to push "don't knows" into approves. This can be seen by the fact that there are maybe 1-2% of undecideds whereas there are 9% in this poll. Nonetheless it is likely her numbers have fallen somewhat; it is amazing if they hadn't given the events of the last year and the more than a million dollars spent attacking her.

More curious however is why there are no numbers for Allen. I can't believe his favorables were not polled, and he is hardly unknown as Sheldon Whitehouse or Chuck Schumer, or even Jim Webb were at this point. I have a hunch that the negative attacks on Collins by Moveon.org and other groups, while initially effective have long worn out their welcome. Negative campaigning has never had a good record in Maine, especially against popular figures, and most people think it is the Allen campaign and not independent groups that have been running those ads. From what i have heard of private polls, his actual numbers are around 36/29 about a month ago, which is hardly a great place to be for a challenger. I would be interested to see if Markos will release Allen's numbers if they exist.

The FEC Reports Commeth

2007-10-19T20:20:00.000-07:00

Given the early state of the campaigns, one of the most commonly used indications of the health of campaigns are the FEC reports. Third-Quarter reports were due last week, and at least in regards to the Maine Senate race, they show that that Senator Collins and Tom Allen have continued their relatively steady fundraising. This quarter Senator Collins raised $1,043,000 to Congressman Allen’s 603,000 maintaining the approximately 400K gap that has existed between the two candidates in all of the fundraising reports so far, but bring the total gap to a little bit over a million. $3.1 million for Collins to $2.1 million for Allen. The last three quarters can be seen below:

Third Quarter

            3rdQ

            Indiv.  Total        Oper.                  Cash

            Contr.  Receipts     Exp.     PACs Debt    On-Hand

COLLINS (R) 621,022 1,039,412   241,876 366,509  0  3,104,891

Allen (D)   542,053   666,096   267,069  85,829  0  2,112,801

Second Quarter

COLLINS (R) 690,255 1,266,772   162,707 424,634  0  2,307,355

Allen (D)   965,881 1,084,666   179,076  78,850  0  1,717,974

First Quarter

COLLINS (R) 440,863   836,675    64,042 389,619  0  1,203,690

Allen (D)*  315,465   393,243    82,499  77,600  0    812,484

As can be seen, Collins began the campaign by out raising Allen 2-1. Allen subsequently closed the gap second quarter, helped by more than $350,000 raised online in response to a Lieberman hosted Collins fundraiser, a feat accomplished by tapping into the nigh-insane rage felt at Joe Lieberman by many on the online left. This quarter the interest in the race slowed down, indicating that Allen is much more dependent on national donations. This is illustrated by the fact that all of Allen’s decline is in the category of personal donations that have declined by more than $432,000 for him, whereas they have fallen only $69,000 for Collins. In terms of PAC money, Allen actually collected more this quarter than last quarter.

What can we take from this is that Allen is far more dependent on national attention than Collins is, and therefore is likely to suffer substantially from the distraction presented by the Presidential race next year. That said the DSCC has far more money than its GOP counterpart, which should make up for a large degree of the discrepancy.

County-by-County: Cumberland

2007-10-12T23:39:00.000-07:00

Since I covered Susan Collins’ home base of Aroostook last week, I thought that this week it might be appropriate to cover Tom Allen’s homebase, Cumberland County. Cumberland county is Maine’s largest as well as richest county, including Portland, South Portland, Cape Elizabeth, as well as Yarmouth and Scarborough. It is also in total a strongly Democratic area, though also one that Susan Collins has won in the past. Since Allen represents this county in congress I also intend to analyze the 2004 House race between Allen and Charlie Summers, which while not close, is the closest thing we have to a measure of his popularity in the area. Furthermore, I also have split the county into Portland/non-Portland for the 2004 Presidential, and Congressional races in order to demonstrate the enormous effect Maine’s largest city has on the results in this county.

2006 Governor

John Baldacci 48,449 39.8%(39% statewide)

Chandler Woodcock 31,835 26.2%(29% statewide)

Barbara Merrill(I) 27,613 22.7%(21% statewide)

Pat LaMarche(G) 13,082 10.8%(9% statewide)

D+3

2004 Presidential

John Kerry 4,846 58.2%(53% statewide)

George Bush 65,834 40.1%(45% statewide)

D+5

Without Portland

John Kerry 59,081 52.8%

George Bush 51,047 45.6%

2004 Congressional

Tom Allen 97,036 62%(60% district wide)

Charlie Summers 59,319 38%(40% district wide)

D+2

Without Portland

Tom Allen 61,054 56.6%

Charlie Summers 46,742 43.4%

2002 Senate

Susan Collins 64,123 56.1%(58% statewide)

Chellie Pingree 50,095 43.9%(42% statewide)

D+2

Without Portland

Susan Collins 48,786 61.4%

Chellie Pingree 30,651 38.6%

2002 Governor

John Baldacci 49,900 43.7%(49% statewide)

Peter Cianchette 50,095 43.8%(41% statewide)

R+4

As can be seen, while Cumberland is a heavily democratic county, Susan Collins still managed to win it easily in 2002, coming in only 2% below her statewide performance. While she may not achieve that against Allen, it is an indication that she has a lot more support in the first district than she is being given credit for. As for Allen, there is good and bad. In 2004 he carried the county with 62% of the vote, 4% above what John Kerry received. On the other hand, John Kerry was running 5% above his statewide performance of 53%, whereas Allen was only running 2% ahead of his district-wide performance of 60%. While this could be diminishing returns, it is somewhat interesting when paired with the fact that he has never topped 61% in his district since first being elected, even against gadflys. Allen does have a source for optimism however in the 2002 numbers. That race pitted a Northern Maine Democrat against a Cumberland-based Republican, and the Republican won. This illustrates that there still is geographical voting, even in “cosmopolitan” Maine.

The real test next year will be to see what happens when Collins who won this county by 12 points, competes with Allen who won by 22 against much weaker opposition in 2004. I would give the heads-up to Allen to carry-it, especially since it is the region where Iraq is likely to be the biggest issue, but Allen’s problem here, like Collins’ in Aroostook, is not so much whether he carries it but by how much. A 52-48 win here, or even a 55-45 is a sign of serious problems statewide. Collins did after all lose it in her first Senate race in 1996, albeit by one point. Judging the exact margin by which Allen has to win it is hard, given that no democrat has won over 50% in a non-presidential statewide race since the 1980s, but if Allen is to win this is where the margin must come from.

2008 County-by-County: Aroostook

2007-10-07T22:04:00.000-07:00

One of my favorite political websites is the Virginia website Notlarrysabato. Not necessarily because of its opinion position, which is clearly democratic, but because of the extent of analysis it puts into every legislative race. One of their big activities is to analyze state senate and house districts by their votes in the last two gubernatorial races, as well as the 2004 Presidential and 2006 Senate races. Therefore, in preparation for the 2008 senate race, I intend to do a rundown of each county in Maine, attempting to determine how important they will be in the 2008 elections. I intend to begin at the top with Aroostook, Susan Collins’ home county. A generally democratic county in national races, it is the region of Maine with highest swing between Presidential results and Senator Collins’ own performance, and as such is an interesting place to start.

2000 Presidential

Al Gore 17,197 49%.

George Bush 16,555 47%

Ralph Nader 1,055 3%

Result R+3(compared to statewide margin)

2002 Senate

Susan Collins 17,869 68%

Chellie Pingree 8,278 32%

Result R+10

2004 Presidential

John Kerry 19,569 52%

George Bush 17,564 47%

Ralph Nader 359 1%

Result R+3

2006 Governor

John Baldacci(D) 12,752 48%

Chandler Woodcock(R) 7,188 27%

Barbara Merrill(I) 3,808 14%

Patricia Lamarche(G) 2,404 9%

Result D+12

As can be seen there is a huge variability in terms of the partisanship of the region, most apparent when locals John Baldacci and Susan Collins are in the ballot. In that sense it is probably better to say that rather than partisan, much of the voting in “the county” is geographical. A generic democrat may narrowly best a generic republican, but a local will always crush an outsider. This is probably not the best news for Tom Allen, a Portland native in terms of winning this area.

Nonetheless, there is a democratic base here that can be tapped, as the Presidential results show. The bigger question however is whether it is worth it for Allen to put in the effort here to cut down his margin. I spoke with an Allen staffer this past summer who suggested that the campaign would ignore the region as it contained less than 30,000 votes.

Out of those thirty-thousand votes however, came a larger margin for Susan Collins in 2002 than Chellie Pingree received from Portland, and even if it is impossible to cut it down to nothing, cutting it to 60-40 would have eliminated nearly a 4,000 vote deficit statewide. Furthermore, Allen’s greatest problem breaking through in the second district will likely be convincing voters that he actually cares about people outside of Portland, and campaigning in Northern Maine, no matter how few votes are there, would fight this perception, whereas the campaign’s current strategy of Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, Bush, Bush, Bush, reinforces the perception that Allen has no interests north of Cumberland county.

As for Collins, winning is not the problem, it is winning decisively enough that is the issue. She needs large margins in rural areas like Aroostook to overcome Allen’s likely margins in Portland and other parts of the first district. She benefits from the fact that Allen doesn’t seem to be seriously contesting the area right now, but anything less than a 58-42 win is not a victory for her. It’s a sign she is in trouble statewide.

Democrats Worried About a Third Party?

2007-10-03T21:04:00.000-07:00

The Central Maine Morning Sentinal had a story yesterday in which Democrats fretted over the prospect of third party candidacies by Dexter Kamilewicz who won 8% of the vote against Allen last year, and Bill Slavick who won 5% of the vote in the Senate race.

Running against Allen, the Democratic incumbent, and Republican Darlene Curley, Kamilewicz won nearly 8 percent of the vote in the election for Congress in 2005.
Slavick, who lives in Portland, collected 5 percent of the vote in the U.S. Senate campaign as an independent challenger to Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe and her Democratic opponent, Jean Hay Bright.
The key issue for both independent candidates was strong opposition to the war in Iraq.
Neither is committed to running in this election but both are considering it.

This worry is odd, given that both races were uncompetative in 2006, and in the case of the Senate race, Jean Hay bright was a particularly unappealing canidate. What could be the reason behind this concern.?

However, in a recent interview, he said he is getting "enormous pressure from the Democrats" to stay out of the race.
"They're telling me that Tom is a very weak candidate and even if you get just a few votes you'll kill us."

Well there we go, Democrats are worried because Tom Allen is a "very weak candidate". Regardless of the veracity of the source this does make sense, because if Allen were an appealing candidate himself, he would have no need to worry about a third party candidate drawing off votes. On the contrary, if he is running as a repository of anti-bush protest votes, than he has a lot more to fear from an alternative basket.

I have long been of the view that the determinant of this campaign will not be Collins, but whether or not Allen can satisfactorily answer the question of "why Tom Allen should be Senator." The Iraq war is an issue, but Allen seems be basing his whole campaign around it, and the example of Niki Tsongas in MA shows the dangers of using Iraq-Bush as a catch all answer to questions ranging from health care to economic policy. If the Democrats are worried about third-party candidates they are looking at a symptom rather than a problem. They should spend their time looking closer to home.

On the Topic of Fake Controversy

2007-09-24T22:32:00.000-07:00

The Collins-Allen race is unique in the sense that unlike a number of other races that haven't fully formed even as of today, it was more or less clear what the shape of the race would be months ago. By April we knew who the candidates were, and the summer offensive by anti-war groups showed us what the major issue would be; whether or not Collins is too close to George Bush. Virtually every attack(and most of the campaign has been attacks, I have as of yet failed to hear a single positive thing about Allen from his camp) on the Senator has focused on how close she is to President Bush.

Yet this fight has surprisingly been carried out almost entirely by proxies. On the Democratic side, Allen activists like Kay from whitenoiseinsanity have led the assaults on Collins, will publish posts like her recent "Who is winning the Traitor to America Match? Senator Olympia Snowe or Senator Susan Collins?"

Rather than focusing on such important topics the Allen camp has mostly resorted to sparring with the Collins campaign over such as using Allen House staff to raise questions as to whether Senator Collins is using Senate staff to comunicate with the press, and most recently over whether or not Senator Collins promised to serve only two terms. The Bangor Daily News carried a story on this dispute several days ago, while the Allen campaign has sought to argue that the Senators entire effort is illegitimate. Other than the fact that she has made clear her intention to run for another term since 2002, a full list of politicians who have reversed term limits pledges would include 80% of congress. Furthermore, it is not a story. Senator Collins told the BDN Editorial board of her decision last year. But in a race in which nothing seems to be moving at this point, people are wasting time on it again.

I really wish both campaigns would cut the crap, and start running affirmative positive campaigns about what they would do in Washington over the next six years. Susan Collins has an admirable twelve year record to run on, while Tom Allen should stop attacking Susan Collins on irrelevant issues, and explain what he would do better. He will win or lose this race based on what people think a "Senator Tom Allen" would do, and his current campaign makes it appear that he is avoiding that discussion rather than embracing it.

On the topic of Tom Allen's Out-of- State Support

2007-09-22T12:59:00.000-07:00

Given Tom Allen's lack of prescence int he second district, one would think he would be hard at work on outreach, and to an extent he has been, just not in the second district or for that matter Maine. While Senator Collins has also been to a large degree absent recently, she has the excuse fo Senatorial duties. Allen on the other hand, has begun engaging in important outreach on issues important to Mainers at the Pacific Palisades in Los Angeles, as reported by the user Inigo Montoya at the democratic activist site, mydd. According to Inigo, the:

The format of the event was an hour of heavy hors d'oeuvres and drinks to allow for mingling and conversation, including the Congressman, followed by a buffet dinner with seating in the back yard of an elegant home in the Pacific Palisades. Approximately 30 people were in attendance. The host, a lead speaker from SOSM, and Congressman Allen spoke in turn, with the Congressman fielding questions afterwards. Or, as he put it, "I'll be happy to take your questions and listen to your speeches." LOL...he knows the type.

Inigo apparently received a positive impression of Congressman Allen as he claims to have put down most of his year's donation budget. In the psoting he also described how the congressman dealt with such Maine issues as "Net Neutrality", demonstrating a breadth of depth in regards to this "important" issue:

I didn't have a notebook with me and frankly this was the kind of event where I don't think it would have been appropriate. But Allen spoke about a number of issues, including firm deadlines for withdrawal from Iraq. I asked him about Net Neutrality and he gave a thoughtful, comprehensive answer that demonstrated that he not only knew what NN was (and that the Internet wasn't a set of tubes) but indicated some nuanced thinking about pricing vs. bandwidth consumed, concluding with "Yes, I'm in favor of it." A disproportionate amount of questioning at the end wound up getting tangled in campaign financing reform, which was the hobby horse of one of the attendees.

I can't wait to see the amazing net neutrality adds that Allen intends to run in Lewiston, and I look forward to his upcoming Presque Isle event featuring "heavy hors d'oeuvres". After all, they are a Maine favorite.

The Purpose of this Blog

2007-09-22T12:14:00.000-07:00

This is my first post, and it is as good a place as any to introduce my reasons for writing this blog. I am a college student currently attending school in Maine, with a strong interest in politics, especially politics in New England. As such the Maine Senate Race pitting Tom Allen against Susan Collins has been of enormous interest to me. Following it online however, has been something of a challenge. Not because there is a lack of coverage; there is plenty. It is just that much of the commentary comes from people either outside of Maine who know nothing about the state, or from people in Portland, who know little more about Maine outside of Cumberland county. This combined with the increasingly lynch mob mentality on national left-wing blogs like dailykos(which I will admit to reading regularly), led me to want to set up a site where I could give a perspective on the race from a second district, and hopefully more neutral perspective.