Saturday, June 21, 2008

The Race Closes or Does It?


In regards to the Senate race in Maine, manyobservers online are abuzz about a new Rasmussen poll out showing Susan Collins ahead of Tom Allen by a mere 7 points, 49-42. Ordinarily a poll showing a challenger trailing by 7 points would not be cause for celebration among that candidate’s supporters and a cause for panic among his opponent’s, but in Maine, a state where Tom Allen has seemingly failed to show much sign of catching on, it is a big deal. Commentators on DailyKos were quick to declare Collins dead in the water, while commentators at As Maine Goes attempted to discredit the poll, by criticizing its automated nature.

There is a problem with the poll, but it does not lie in how it was taken – instead it lies in what else it says.. The same poll showing Collins up 7 has Obama leading McCain by 22 points, 55-33. While it may well be possible that Obama is leading McCain by that much in Maine, and given the demographic makeup of the state I am skeptical, I think that few would suggest that Obama will actually win Maine by 22 points. Without a doubt Collins will likely win by only high single digits if Obama does carry the state 60-38, but I doubt even the strongest Collin’s supporter would have contested that claim.

So what does this poll really show? It shows Tom Allen running 12 points behind Obama, while Collins runs 19 points in front of McCain for one thing, and I sincerely doubt that much as no Collins supporter would contest that Tom Allen would be in single digits if Obama swept Maine by over twenty-points, most Allen supporters will have to concede that if Collins is running a net 31 points better than McCain’s margin, she wins.

Furthermore, the numbers in the rest of the poll do not give Allen much comfort. 65% still view Collins favorably, 9% higher than his own favorables, while Allen’s unfavorables, at 37% are 4% higher than Collins’. Furthermore, most of the undecideds are Republicans and independents, while Collins, with 81% of Republicans supporting her, probably has an easier time winning over undecideds than does Allen who already has the support of 89% of Democrats.

In effect the poll effectively confirms what everyone already knew. One that Tom Allen as a candidate seems to have failed to catch on, and two that despite the previous statement, Maine, as a state likely to go democratic in the Presidential election, is one that is unlikely to be a blowout. In effect, Tom Allen is depending on Barack Obama to carry him over the finish line, which given his weakness in the working-class second district, seems like a situation he would rather not be in.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Maine Senate; County By County

After a six month hiatus caused by the great bane of student existence, thesis, I decided to relaunch my project to follow the 2008 Maine Senate Race. Much has happened to change the race since I was last on. Last fall Collins led by 18-20 points consistently; today Collins leads by only 15 points.

Actually to be honest the failure of Allen to get traction is extremely worrying for him, especially given the history of strong congressional challengers simply failing to catch on. He certainly has to be worried about the fates that befell David Emory and Tom Andrews, strong candidates who simply chose to run against incumbents Mainers saw no reason to fire. Both were popular congressman who represented half the state, both had plenty of money, and both lost by over 20 points. While Allen will may well pull within ten points, his race is starting to look mighty steep.

With that said I think it makes sense to look at Androscoggin couny, perhaps the great battleground of this race. Working-class and dominated by the historically democratic cities of Lewiston and Auburn, it is the place Allen needs to win badly. It is also a place where likely democratic nominee Barack Obama is unlikely to benefit his recent endorser. Dominated by catholic Franco-Americans, it is exactly the type of community where Hillary did well, and while Obama put in a decent performance powered by Bates College students in the caucuses, the democractic Mayor of Lewiston has endorsed Susan Collins over Allen, and much of the local democratic machine seems to be holding back from supporting him. This is a problem because even Chellie Pingree out performed her statewide numbers here, and if he is not winning Androscoggin, he is unlikely to be close to winning the state.

2006 Governor

Maine

Baldacci(D) 38.22%

Woodcock(R) 30.21%

Merrill(I) 21.55%

Lamarche (G) 9.56%

2006 Governor

Baldacci(D) 13,631 33.31%

Woodcock(R)13,362 32.66%

Merrill(I) 9,805 23.96%

Lamarche (G) 3,914 9.57%

2004 Presidential

Maine

Kerry(D) 53.57%

Bush(R) 44.58%


Androscoggin

Kerry(D) 30,503 54.40%

Bush(R) 24,519 43.73%

2002 Senate

Maine

Collins(R) 58.44%

Pingree(D) 41.66%

Androscoggin

Collins(R) 20,095 55.20%

Pingree(D) 16,312 44.80%

2000 Presidential

Maine

Gore (D) 49.09%

Bush(R) 43.97%

Nader(G) 5.70%

Androscoggin

Gore (D) 26,251 53.31%

Bush (R) 19,948 40.51%

Nader(G) 2,388 4.70%

As can be seen Androscoggin is generally more Democratic than Maine at large, which makes sense considering that Lewiston-Auburn is a historical stronghold of the Maine Democratic party, voting Democratic consistently even in the pre-Muskie era when Maine was one of the most Republican states in the country. While its margin is partially negated by the small towns that are more Republican, performance there primary determines performance county wide. It is a very specific type of Democratic however, given the Franco-American background of Lewiston-Auburn’s population, and how more democratic than the state depends on the candidate. Gore ran about 4% better than his statewide numbers in Androscoggin, while Pingree ran about 3% better. Kerry on the other hand, performed less than 1% better here, while Baldacci actually performed worse.

Much of Pingree’s margin came from Lewiston, which she won by just over 200 votes over Collins. This should be Tom Allen’s worst case performance. Pingree recall lost the county by ten and the election by sixteen. Allen probably will have trouble coming close to Kerry’s 25 point and 4,500 vote margin, but a 12-15 point win and 2000-2500 vote margin is likely the absolute minimum he needs to win.


Obama is likely to be a mixed blessing here. He will probably increase student turnout over the 2006 numbers in Lewiston, where Bates students will come out to vote for him and presumably Allen, but the rest of Lewiston-Auburn and Androscoggin county for that matter are made up of the exact kind of voters Obama has not been winning in the primaries. Allen’s problem is that these are also the voters he never consolidated within his own congressional district. Local issues, including the fact that Allen blocked the construction of a post office in Lewiston will not help. Nor will the fact that the Mayor of Lewiston endorsed and is campaigning for Collins. That said, this is probably more hospitable for Allen than the rest of the second district and he likely needs to win it to win his race.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Comparing Apple's and Oranges

Jonathan Kaplan's story in this weekend's Maine Sunday Telegram was a remainder that if news is not available, journalists often feel it is their job to create it. Titled
'Allen, Collins offer study in big contrasts', the article proffered a
comparison of the legislative records of Senator Susan Collins and her
challenger, Congressman Tom Allen. What makes this article so strange is
that it avoids any quantitative assessment of their records at all, and
instead seems to make the case that legislators should not be judged by
their legislative accomplishments. This premise seems a shallow attempt to
mask what will most likely be the key issue in this campaign: that
Congressman Allen, during his tenure in Washington that started on the exact
same day as his opponent, has never passed a single piece of legislation
into law.

The article was featured on the front page of Sunday's paper, and included a
callout graphic with the candidate's pictures and a short list of
legislative highlights, side by side. While the Collins column highlighted
three (of many) actual legislative accomplishments, Allen's list stretched
the definition of 'Legislative Highlights':
- Inserted provision into bill that would have banned permanent U.S. bases
in Iraq
- Kicked off national debate on high price of prescription drugs in 1998
- Authored bill banning mercury exports that passed the House, pending in
Senate

Let's break these down:
The first of Allen's top three achievements in his 12 years in Washington
is that he inserted a provision into a bill. And the provision was ignored.
Later in the article, Kaplan erroneously refers to Allen's effort as a
'bill', which it was, in fact, not.

The second point is even more dubious: "Kicked off national debate" on
prescription drug prices. Again, not a law. And how exactly did Congressman
Allen 'kick off' this debate? Kaplan is suggesting that Allen was the first
public figure to voice displeasure about prescription drug prices, a
suggestion that is laughable even if we discount its irrelevance. Anyone who has had the misfortune to look at the prices of prescription drugs shares Allen's outrage. It is actually doing something about it that would be an accomplishment.

And last, Allen's pending Mercury bill. In 12 years, all Allen has been able
to do is get a bill through one house of Congress. This is not a
'legislative accomplishment'. A 'nascent accomplishment', perhaps, but
hardly the stuff to put on your resume after more than a decade on the job.

When comparing the legislative records of two candidates, it would make
sense to at least include a simple quantitative assessment: how many bills
has each candidate passed into law? There is not a single reference to the
number of bills Collins has passed into law in the entire article (15 as of
March 2008, not including ammendments). We have to go 13 paragraphs deep
into this front-page article before we get to the fact that Allen has NEVER
passed a bill into law. This point is obviously the deserved focus of any
article on the Collins vs Allen legislative record, its absence in this
article generates serious questions about the author's reason for writing
the piece.

When Kaplan finally reveals that Allen has never passed a bill into law, he
couches it in an excruciatingly misleading sentence:
"Until the Democrats
took control of Congress in 2007, none of those bills was signed into law."

The reader would naturally assume that Allen has passed some legislation
since the 2007 Democratic takeover. The reader, in that case, would be
wrong: Allen has still not passed a single bill into law.

The 'provision' referred to in the front-page graphic is revealed actually
as the work of Rep. Barbara Lee of California, but not until the sixth
paragraph, on the back page of the paper. It turns out Allen's #1
legislative accomplishment was having a two year old concept picked up by
another member of congress and inserted into a bill. So the front-page
graphic that says Allen 'inserted' the provision was contradicted by later
parts of the article itself- Lee, not Allen, inserted the provision. And, of
course, the provision was ultimately dismissed.

Kaplan then goes on to suggest excuses for Allen's dire lack of legislative
accomplishment. He states as fact that 'In the house, the majority party
rules with a heavy hand. The minority party rarely wins any legislative
victories and is afforded only limited chances to shape legislation."
Kaplan's statement seems to suggest an institutional lack of cooperation in
the House,regardless of which party is in charge. A simple test of this
logic would be to compare Allen's lack of accomplishment with his fellow
Democratic congressmen.

Turns out the iron-fisted majority rule in the House has not prevented Rep.
Charles Rangel from passing 13 bills into law since 1997. The late
Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos also passed 13 bills since 1997, Elijah
Cummings passed 11, Ralph Regula and George Miller each passed 9, the list
goes on and on, and these don't even include amendments that have been
adopted. While there is no doubt that minority status is a hindrance to
passing legislation, the idea that a legislator would be unable to get a
single bill passed in 12 years in Congress is worth examination in an
article about legislative records.

Kaplan proceeds to break apart the themes of the two candidates'
legislative work: Allen works on 'Big Issues', while Collins is 'Taking Aim
at Bureaucracy'. Again, the false implication here is that Collins is absent
from the 'Big Issue' debate. Despite the headline, the only backup to this
claim is a quote from Allen himself, stating that he has 'taken on big
issues.' Kaplan reverts again to Allen's role in the prescription drug
debate, admitting Allen's efforts failed, but closing with this: " The bill
never made it through the House, but it led states, including Maine, to pass
similar bills." Kaplan fails to describe how exactly Allen's bill 'led'
states to pass similar bills, the same way he failed to explain how Allen
'kicked off' the debate over prescription drug prices. Kaplan is making an
inference here that could only be based on Allen's talking points, as he
presents no empirical data about Allen's involvement in subsequent efforts.

Kaplan closes this article with a paragraph that is as revealing of his
motivations as any in the article. The piece that was ostensibly a study in
legislative accomplishments ends with a quote from Amy Fried of the
University of Maine. Kaplan describes her as a 'political scientist a the
University of Maine at Orono." Fried is in fact a rabid partisan, a
self-described progressive. Her partisan bona fides would have been easily
accessible to Kaplan, here is a sampling of the headlines of some of her
op-eds:
The Real Feel-Good Party-Republicans would rather live in a fantasy world of
saving face, than deal with the real issues.
Republican Rage- Republican free-floating rage is reinforced by
self-defeating neo-con policies.
Corporate Media Enables Right Wing Distortion of "Religious Liberty"-The
corporate media is making it easier for the Republican Religious Right base
to pass extreme views off as mainstream. The media stars display their own
ignorance in the process.
Republican Candidates' Pro-Torture Glee-Arguments against most Republican
presidential candidates' adolescent view of torture.


Offered as a non-biased summary, Fried's statements have almost nothing to
do with the rest of the article:

"Congressman Allen will want to frame Senator Collins' record in terms of
her relationship with President Bush and the Republican Party, which is
unpopular in Maine," said Amy Fried, a political scientist at the University
of Maine in Orono. "Senator Collins wants to set up herself up in opposition
in certain Bush policies."


So Kaplan's judgment of a fitting summary to this piece is that Collins is
trying to set herself up in opposition to Bush? Despite Allen and Collins
spending 12 years in Congress, Kaplan dismisses the entire concept of
legislative accomplishment, and chalks it all up to his myopic perception
that Bush trumps everything.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

County-by-County: York

Having covered the home bases for both candidates, I decided to finally resume my county-by county survey of Maine by looking at York County, which is Maine’s second richest. The southernmost county in the state, it resembles seacoast New Hampshire in many ways more than it does Maine, though its high income and social liberalism have tended to cancel each other out, and in the 2004 Presidential Election, its results almost perfectly mirrored those of the state at large. As part of Allen’s district he has an inside shot at winning it by at least Kerry’s margin which should put him in a good position in the race, though Susan Collins also showed substantial strength here in 2002. This county will likely be the test of how strongly influenced the race will be by the War in Iraq and the Presidential race. While a standard Republican performance shouldn’t drag down Collins too much, the prospect of Huckabee nomination that could turn a 54-46 race into a 61-39 one may worry the Collins camp. If Allen can win here even with 53 or 54% he is in good shape.

Statistics

Governor 2006

John Baldacci 32,324 42.04%

Chandler Woodcock 21,890 28.47%

Barbara Merrill 15,591 20.28%

Pat LaMarche 6,729 8.75%

D+3

Presidential 2004

John Kerry 58,702 53.55%

George Bush 49,526 45.01%

D+0

House 2004

Tom Allen 60,157 58.17%

Charlie Summers 43,253 41.83%

R+2

Senate 2002

Susan Collins 43,556 60.56%

Chellie Pingree 28,352 39.44%

R+2

Presidential 2000

Al Gore 46,618 49.31%

George Bush 42,304 44.74%

Ralph Nader 4,631 4.90%

As can be seen this county almost exactly mirrored the statewide results, with George Bush in 2000 and Susan Collins in 2002 performing slightly above the statewide Republican performance, and George Bush in 2004 and Chandler Woodcock in 2006 performing below it. A such it is an obvious battleground in 2008, which like much of Maine, pits Susan Collins popularity as a Senator against Allen’s record as a congressmen. This is not a good indication for Allen who has performed the worst in the county vis-à-vis his overall performance as congressman, never once matching Susan Collins 2002 showing a against a much stronger opponent than he has ever faced. Another occurrence of sixtypercentism, Tom Allen’s persistent inability to get over 61% in his own district no matter the year or quality of his opponent, indicating his inability to establish himself with his constituents. Any semi-competent Democratic incumbent could get 60% here against under funded foes, but that loyalty is a mile wide and an inch deep. This, combined with his poor showings so far in statewide polls leads me to think that he is probably lucky to be over 40% in an area that he needs to win.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

December Update

Having not updated for a while this is a relatively slipshot update. No new polls have been released since I last updated. The race has continued to move down people’s rankings, with it dropping below seven on the Hotline’s ranking of races most likely to turn over, and news that Trent Lott has resigned , and the likelihood of a special election increases the likelihood that intention will continue to shift away from Maine. In fact there have been only two google news entries on the race in the last two weeks.

This is not to say things have not been active. They have been, or at least the staffs on both sides have been organizing and planning. Allen’s staff has been so busy, Allen even declined to meet with a delegation of Democrats from Lewiston last week in order to discuss how to attack Collins with his taxpayer-funded chief of staff. I have this incident on good authority, which would add another dose of irony to a race in which Allen has repeatedly accused Collins of things only to have it revealed that his campaign itself is actually guilty of those very practices.

If that is bad enough, being identified like this in the Kennebec Herald aren’t great for the congressman:

Collins is facing a challenge from U.S. Rep. Tom Allen, a Democrat, who is trailing by 20 points according to early polls.

Now that sort of article will have an impact on fundraising.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Collins-Allen Race Moving Down the Rankings

Well, back after a bit of a gap, which is what seems to have happened to news about the race. Nevertheless, views have begun to move in the national media in regards to the race after a spate of polls showing Collins leading by twenty points or more. Chris Cillizza, the Washington Post political reporter, who recently ranked the race in 4th place on his list of seats likely to change parties has demoted all the way to 8th, and has begun to see signs of a repeat of the 2002 Collins-Pingree race.

8. Maine: This race continues to confound us. Is it a replay of the 2006 Rhode Island Senate race, where Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R), a moderate by any standard, is dragged to defeat simply because of the "R" by his name on the ballot? Or is it a mirror image of Sen. Susan Collins's (R) 2002 race, in which a much-hyped Democratic challenger failed to convince Maine voters that the incumbent is really more conservative than she says? We honestly don't know. Rep. Tom Allen is the best candidate Democrats could have fielded against Collins but has considerable ground to make up over the next year. Poll after poll shows Collins not just ahead by 20+ points but enjoying well over 50 percent support. There's no question her numbers will come down as the race engages and Allen seeks to tie President Bush's unpopularity and the war in Iraq around her campaign. But Collins is in as strong a shape as any northeastern incumbent could ask for one year out from Election Day.

I tend to agree with this judgment and to have held it from this summer. Yes the environment is bad, and yes the war is unpopular, but if the democrats are relying on those to give them the race, it is an acknowledgment that even with Tom Allen's "strength's" there wouldn't be a race at all. Environment can help someone who would otherwise lose 51-47 win, but can it help someone who would lose 55-42?

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Two New Polls and Favorable/Unfavorable Numbers for Allen

Given the sparsity with which this race has been polled its amazing how many polls have come out lately. Two new ones were released this weekend, both more or less confirming Dailykos' Research 2000 one. The first is from Critical Insights who also polled the race in the spring, then showing a 57-32 Collins lead. The fall 2007 shows the race as

Maine
52% Susan Collins
33% Tom Allen

First Congressional District
49% Susan Collins
36% Tom Allen

Second Congressional District
56% Susan Collins
30% Tom Allen

Favorable

The most suprising thing about the numbers is not the margin; that has been fairly constant. The thing of interest is Tom Allen's numbers. His inability to get much above 36% in his own congressional district is not a good sign since he has nearly 100% name id there. He was elected on the same day in 1996 as Susan Collins, and it it must be disturbing to be trailing her by 13 points in his own district. It also indicates a degree of weakness on the part of Allen personally, indicating that he does have negatives. Again we lacked a question on views of Tom Allen. Luckily SurveyUSA did ask that question, and as a result we discover the amazing fact that Allen shockingly already has higher negatives statewide than Collins.

Maine
55% Susan Collins
38% Tom Allen

Fav/Unfav/Neutral/Unfamiliar
Susan Collins 48/25/25/2
Tom Allen 34/29/26/11

Southern Maine
54% Collins
41% Allen

Fav/Unfav/Neutral/Unfamiliar
Susan Collins 52/25/22/1
Tom Allen 42/30/22/5

Northern Maine
56% Collins
35% Allen

Fav/Unfav/Neutral/Unfamiliar
Susan Collins 43/25/28/4
Tom Allen 25/27/30/18


The most stunning thing in these numbers is again Allen's weakness in Southern Maine where there is only a negligible difference in name id between the candidates. As i mentioned when i looked at Cumberland county earlier, Allen needs to come out of here with 54% or 55% of the vote to have a shot. He is polling at 41%. And those numbers assume Collins is held below 55% in the second district, something that is also not happening. Is the race impossible for Allen? More problematic are his negatives, which are the only real part of his numbers that are seeing movement and now are almost even with his positives. This is a serious issue because in many cases this far out, those numbers are better indicator of performance than horse race ones. And they are indicating that Mainer's are not liking what they see of Allen politically.